Of Cars & Colors

Have you ever wondered why auto manufacturers seem to have a flagship color for each model?  It seems you see for instance,  more of the tan/gray 1999-2003 Chevy Silverado trucks than any other color of that particular model.  They must have clearance sales on certain colors in the Detroit area Sherwin Williams stores.

One that I especially notice is the gold color that Chrysler used in the late 1990’s.  Many of the Chrysler Concordes were this (ugly) gold color.  In a Google Image search for a 1998 Chysler Concorde, the first four images are the gold color.  They must have thought this color would make the car look luxurious.  Um... it is an ugly color (on a not so pretty car).  One of my co-workers owns a car of this vintage and color.  He kindly refers to it as the “golden egg.”

So, all that being said…Chrysler is in deep financial trouble, and is on the brink of bankruptcy.  And if they do go under…will they have killed the goose that laid the golden egg?

How Bad Is It?

How bad is the current state of economic affairs?  The news media tells me it is very, very bad.  People are losing jobs, and companies are declaring bankruptcy.  Consumers have stopped spending money, and employers have cut wages.  Homeowners are facing foreclosures in record numbers and housing prices have dropped.  It seems bad, but how bad is it really.

Many comparisons have been made to the time of the Great Depression.  I do see some key differences between now and the Great Depression.

We have significantly increased our standard of living since the 1930’s.  Necessities today include basic cable, a cell phone, a car, internet access, and all our convenient appliances.  In the 1930’s many of these items were not available or were very expensive luxury items.  Today, we take them for granted as must-have items.

 

We have much faster access to news and information.  We don’t need to wait to hear the latest round of bad news.  I also believe the negative information gets more coverage because it gets people’s attention.

We have more economic indicators.  It seems that several times a week, more numbers get released indicating the current state of things.  It seems when things are good, all the indicators confirm it; however, if things are bad, it feels like a continuing avalanche of negativity.

This recession has been one of the worst in our history, however I believe it has not yet reached the levels of the Great Depression.  It is very hard to compare due to the above-mentioned differences. 

Here is my measuring stick:  We will have reached the levels of the Great Depression when more than 50% of 2008 cell phone subscribers have canceled their plans.  That will be tough times.

Technology and the Future

How has technology changed in the past 10 years?  I bought my first mobile phone in 1998.  It was a cutting edge Nokia with text messaging, games, all the bells and whistles.  Today, I use my phone as an mp3 player, camera, internet, and sometimes to make phone calls.  In 1998, I didn’t even know what an mp3 was.

Thinking over how technology has changed in my generation, has caused me to think about how it will further change in my lifetime.  As with mp3s taking the place of CDs, I am expecting some sort of replacement for DVDs.  I would guess that by 2020, we will be carrying devices with technology we don’t even know about today.  I would guess that we will have a digital video format that will make DVDs obsolete.

It is hard for me to remember how things were when we weren’t so connected.  When traveling from one location to another, no one could contact me until I reached my destination.  Today, instead of “call home when you get there”, it is “text me while you travel.”  Today, we feel lost when we forget our phone when running an errand.

In my opinion, the convenience outweighs the negatives.  We are after all, still able to turn the phone off.

The Inauguration of Barack Obama and Historic Events

Why was the historic inauguration of Barack Obama such a big deal? Can't we see an inauguration every 4 years?

I believe the excitement for this inauguration had everything to do with its historic nature. How many times in your lifetime do you experience historic events? I would classify historic events as things like the terrorist attacks of 2001, Hurricane Katrina, landing on the moon, and such events. You may experience a historic event every year of you lifetime. The difference between the inauguration and most historic events is that you could plan to be part of the event. Most historic events happen without much warning...you couldn't really plan to be part of Sept. 11, 2001, unless you were involved with a terrorist organization. You could plan to be at the World Series and hope the Chicago Cubs would win for the first time in 100 years, but they may (probably would) lose. It is unusual to have an event of this proportion with 2 months to plan for.

Does History Repeat Itself?

Does history repeat itself? I believe it does to a certain extent. It seems that we tend to ignore history and the lessons it provides. Experience really is the best teacher. If we can let another’s experience be our teacher, we can avoid many headaches.

In my lifetime, I don’t expect that there will be another mortgage crisis. Why? I believe the banks and other lenders will not be handing out subprime or other risky loans. That lesson is fresh with us, and those who go back to those practices will be thought of as stupid or naïve. The lessons of the Great Depression were very vivid to those who lived it. The interesting thing is that the Great Depression generation is mostly gone. Those who lived through the Great Depression had very sound financial values. The following generations slowly lost that as time went on. Today’s generation will not soon forget the lessons from today’s economy, however, the following generations will, most likely, at some point get themselves into a similar situation.

I have heard it said that the definition of stupidity is keep doing the same things and expecting different results.

What If???

How does a person maintain sanity in this ever changing world? What is going to happen tomorrow? Next week? Next month? Next year? The possibilities seem endless, for good or bad. Will the economy crash? Will the next president make things better or worse? Is my job as secure as it seems? The endless questions make a person’s head spin. One thing is sure. We don’t know the future. We may make predictions based on the past and the present, but that does not guarantee us the future to be as we have planned.

What is a person to do? The only way I have found to maintain sanity is to live today – just today. Not reliving yesterday, not worrying about tomorrow, just living today. Just now. I can do things today that may make a difference in the future, but ultimately, I cannot change the future. The only thing I control is now. If I am smoking a cigarette now, I may have the consequences of lung cancer in 10 years from now. However, if I make the best decision for the moment I am living in, I will extinguish the cigarette and quit smoking. That does not guarantee that I won’t get lung cancer, but it is the most that I can do to control my health in the future. I may walk across the street and get hit by a bus tomorrow, but if I spend my time worrying about it, I simply wasting the current moment with things I cannot control.

Live today!

Is October Bad Luck?

What is the deal with October? Does the stock market have something against the month of October? The Great Crash of 1929 - October 29, 1929; Black Monday - October 19, 1987; Mini crash - October 13, 1997; Crash due to Asian markets - October 27, 1997; and the current economic crisis - October 2008.

Is it due to elections, market timing, beginning of the 4th quarter, or is it all coincidence? Some brief research shows that of the top 20 largest daily percentage loss days of the stock market, 9 of them are dates in October. That is 45%. The top 3 largest daily percentage loss days are all dates in October.

However, the flip side is that of the top 20 largest daily percentage gain days, 6 are in October. If you look at the gain days more closely, you will discover many of these occur a few days after a crash, when investors believe the market has bottomed out, and are speculating that bargains are available.

All that being said, October and the autumn months seem to be when most of the losses on Wall Street occur. Why that is remains a puzzle to me.